After going through a bear market in Q4 of 2018, on Jan. 4, the market posted a follow-through day to launch a new market uptrend, driving solid gains over the next several months. The market then pulled back again May 2019 before again continuing higher. This is just one example of how these types of stock market cycles continually repeat. Learning how they work and how to handle them using proven rules is key to long-term success..
News events and earnings reports can change the perceived value of a company. Because the stock market functions as an auction, prices sometimes need to adapt for a trade to occur. When there are more sellers than buyers, the price will go down. Alternately, a stock that has more who want to buy than sell will experience a price increase. Buyers and sellers can be individuals, corporations, asset management companies, or others. Price fluctuations can be dramatic in just one day.
An asset class that your author has been researching substantially is cryptocurrency. Bitcoin and the other alt coins, appear to be like very few other investment assets and so far moves in very different ways to almost every other asset. While it is very volatile and high risk and has quite a learning curve, it might be useful for some investors to understand and add to their portfolio.
To make comparisons between companies, sectors and markets a little easier, there are a number of mathematical models used. The most common and often the most helpful is the P/E ratio. The Price to Earnings ratio takes the share price and is divided by the earnings per share. It is possible to calculate this using past earnings, projected future earnings and with all sorts of moving averages ;-) Therefore, this is one number that it is vital for any investor to know and understand.
Experienced investors such as Buffett eschew stock diversification in the confidence that they have performed all of the necessary research to identify and quantify their risk. They are also comfortable that they can identify any potential perils that will endanger their position, and will be able to liquidate their investments before taking a catastrophic loss. Andrew Carnegie is reputed to have said, “The safest investment strategy is to put all of your eggs in one basket and watch the basket.” That said, do not make the mistake of thinking you are either Buffett or Carnegie – especially in your first years of investing.
Diversification allows you to recover from the loss of your total investment (20% of your portfolio) by gains of 10% in the two best companies (25% x 40%) and 4% in the remaining two companies (10% x 40%). Even though your overall portfolio value dropped by 6% (20% loss minus 14% gain), it is considerably better than having been invested solely in company E.
Investing in stocks can be done in many ways. If you would like to form a strategy and manage your own investments, you can open a brokerage account. If you're unsure about where to start, consider opening an account with a robo advisor who will do the work at a lower cost. For those who want more guidance about their retirement plans, turning to financial advisors might be a good solution.
Michael R. Lewis is a retired corporate executive and entrepreneur. During his 40+ year career, Lewis created and sold ten different companies ranging from oil exploration to healthcare software. He has also been a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC, a Principal of one of the larger management consulting firms in the country, and a Senior Vice President of the largest not-for-profit health insurer in the United States. Mike's articles on personal investments, business management, and the economy are available on several online publications. He's a father and grandfather, who also writes non-fiction and biographical pieces about growing up in the plains of West Texas - including The Storm.
In terms of diversification, the greatest amount of difficulty in doing this will come from investments in stocks. As mentioned earlier, the costs of investing in a large number of stocks could be detrimental to the portfolio. With a $1,000 deposit, it is nearly impossible to have a well-diversified portfolio, so be aware that you may need to invest in one or two companies (at the most) to begin with. This will increase your risk.
The biggest obstacle to stock market profits is an inability to control one’s emotions and make logical decisions. In the short-term, the prices of companies reflect the combined emotions of the entire investment community. When a majority of investors are worried about a company, its stock price is likely to decline; when a majority feel positive about the company’s future, its stock price tends to rise.
Choosing the right stock can be a fool's errand, but investing in high-quality stocks such as blue chips and dividend-yielding ones are often good strategies. One reason investors opt for blue chips is because of the potential for growth and stability and because they produce dividends - these include companies such as Microsoft (ticker: MSFT), Coca-Cola Co. (KO) and Procter & Gamble Co. (PG). Coco-Cola, for example, generates a dividend of 2.9%, and the stock is less volatile as its share price has hovered between $44 and $55 during the past 52 weeks. Dividends can generate much-needed income for investors, especially higher-dividend ones.
If there are any lessons to be learned from the American sub-prime mortgage crisis, the 2008 stock market crash (information here) and Wall Street bailout that followed - and there are lots of lessons - it is that borrowed money can be very dangerous in investments, even when it is being handled professionally. The failure of LTCM, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Northern Rock and many others shows just how precarious a business model can be with too much gearing.
In terms of the beginning investor, the mutual fund fees are actually an advantage relative to the commissions on stocks. The reason for this is that the fees are the same, regardless of the amount you invest. Therefore, as long as you meet the minimum requirement to open an account, you can invest as little as $50 or $100 per month in a mutual fund. The term for this is called dollar cost averaging (DCA), and it can be a great way to start investing.
An online brokerage account likely offers your quickest and least expensive path to buying stocks, funds and a variety of other investments. With a broker, you can open an individual retirement account, also known as an IRA — here are our top picks for IRA accounts — or you can open a taxable brokerage account if you’re already saving adequately for retirement elsewhere.
In late 2014, legendary self-help and business guru Tony Robbins published a book called Money: Master The Game. In it he explains the strategies and ideas used by the very best investors in the world - hedge fund managers, asset allocators and billionaires - that he gleaned from them during four years of interviews and how their lessons should be applied by the rest of us.
Risk tolerance is a psychological trait that is genetically based, but positively influenced by education, income, and wealth (as these increase, risk tolerance appears to increase slightly) and negatively by age (as one gets older, risk tolerance decreases). Your risk tolerance is how you feel about risk and the degree of anxiety you feel when risk is present. In psychological terms, risk tolerance is defined as “the extent to which a person chooses to risk experiencing a less favorable outcome in the pursuit of a more favorable outcome.” In other words, would you risk $100 to win $1,000? Or $1,000 to win $1,000? All humans vary in their risk tolerance, and there is no “right” balance.