Finding the best stocks to buy and watch starts with knowing what a big market winner looks like before it takes off. As noted above, IBD's study of the top-performing stocks in each market cycle since the 1880s has identified the seven telltale traits of market winners. Your goal is to find stocks that are displaying those same traits right now. Traits like explosive earnings and sales growth, a strong return on equity, a fast-growing and industry-leading product or service and strong demand among mutual fund managers.
When thinking about the mindset of investors, The Great Crash 1929 by J.K.Galbraith (reviewed here) should also be required reading. Typically, any sustained fall in prices - known as a bear market - is very destructive to wealth. However, as Galbraith explains wonderfully, each bear market is unique and is a reflection of the bull market that came before it. The book explains a great deal about the feedback loops that can exist when prices rise and fall as more people are either sucked into or forced out of holdings. It is the reference work about a very important slice of Wall Street history.
The reality is that in the modern world - especially with the power of the internet - there is very little information that is not in the public domain somewhere. However, the world now has information overload. Whilst the information might be available, few people now have the time to find or understand it. The people who know these things and can 'join the dots' have regular opportunities for stock market investment.
Even when the stock price has performed as expected, there are questions: Should I take a profit now before the price falls? Should I keep my position since the price is likely to go higher? Thoughts like these will flood your mind, especially if you constantly watch the price of a security, eventually building to a point that you will take action. Since emotions are the primary driver of your action, it will probably be wrong.
Michael R. Lewis is a retired corporate executive and entrepreneur. During his 40+ year career, Lewis created and sold ten different companies ranging from oil exploration to healthcare software. He has also been a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC, a Principal of one of the larger management consulting firms in the country, and a Senior Vice President of the largest not-for-profit health insurer in the United States. Mike's articles on personal investments, business management, and the economy are available on several online publications. He's a father and grandfather, who also writes non-fiction and biographical pieces about growing up in the plains of West Texas - including The Storm.
Understand blockchain – Whilst you don’t need a thorough understanding of the technical makeup of cryptocurrencies, understanding how blockchain works will only prove useful. Once you understand how they secure transactions (blocks) publicly and securely, you’ll be in a better position to gauge the market’s response to big news events. Such as a huge company incorporating blockchain technology into their everyday business operations.
Whatever happens on a stock exchange and no matter how much influence computers, algorithms and high frequency trading may have, human nature will always have an important role to play. Typically, human nature becomes more important when momentum is changing and there is excitement or panic in the air. It would seem wise to try and understand this mass psychology or group thinking which is often referred to by investors as the madness of crowds.
But building a diversified portfolio of individual stocks takes a lot of time, patience and research. The alternative is a mutual fund, the aforementioned ETF or an index fund. These hold a basket of investments, so you’re automatically diversified. An S&P 500 ETF, for example, would aim to mirror the performance of the S&P 500 by investing in the 500 companies in that index.
The solution to both is investing in stock index funds and ETFs. While mutual funds might require a $1,000 minimum or more, index fund minimums tend to be lower (and ETFs are purchased for a share price that could be lower still). Two brokers, Fidelity and Charles Schwab, offer index funds with no minimum at all. Index funds also cure the diversification issue because they hold many different stocks within a single fund.
Diversify your portfolio with a healthy balance of low-risk, moderate-risk, and maybe some high-risk investments. Play it safe with the majority of your investments in tried and true stock options that always return a profit, and continue to invest in them. Now the profit margin may not be massive by any means with these, but it’s a safe bet that long-term investment will yield a healthy ROI. You should also invest in some moderate-risk options that show some promise of yielding a greater ROI percentage than the safer and more stable stock options. It is important to be careful and do some research on these investments, and try to get a sense of if it’s worth investing in. This is especially true for the high-risk investments.
You may see a number of sales charges called loads when you buy mutual funds. Some are front-end loads, but you will also see no-load, and back-end load funds. Be sure you understand whether a fund you are considering carries a sales load prior to buying it. Check out your broker's list of no-load funds, and no-transaction-fee funds if you want to avoid these extra charges.
Rarely is short-term noise (blaring headlines, temporary price fluctuations) relevant to how a well-chosen company performs over the long term. It’s how investors react to the noise that really matters. Here’s where that rational voice from calmer times — your investing journal — can serve as a guide to sticking it out during the inevitable ups and downs that come with investing in stocks.